| Abstract:
Objective: To analyze the trends in gastric cancer mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) from 2009 to 2023 in Wuxi City and estimate the influence of age, period, and birth cohort effect on gastric cancer death using age-period-cohort analysis.
Methods: The gastric cancer mortality data from 2009 to 2023 were collected from Wuxi Death Registration System, and the crude mortality rate, age standardized mortality rate, YLL and YLL rate were calculated to describe the death characteristics.The Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends of mortality and YLL rate of gastric cancer by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC). The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect, time-effect and cohort-effect of gastric cancer death in the population over 30 years old.
Results: From 2009 to 2023, the gastric cancer mortality rate showed a significant downward trend, with an AAPC of -4.59% (95% CI: -4.97~-4.20%). The trend in YLL rate for gastric cancer was similar to that of the mortality rate, with an AAPC of -2.16%(95% CI:-2.60~-1.71%). The age effect on gastric cancer mortality increased with age until 85 years, after which it decreased. The period effect decreased over time, and the cohort effect showed that the risk of death decreased with more recent birth cohorts.
Conclusion: From 2009 to 2023, the burden of gastric cancer mortality in Wuxi showed a decreasing trend, with age and gender being the primary influencing factors.
Keywords: Gastric cancer; Mortality rate; Years of life lost; Surveillance; Age-period-cohort model |
