| Abstract: [Objective] This study aims to analyze the mortality trends and years of life lost (YLL) due to pancreatic cancer among residents in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, from 2002 to 2022, and to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on mortality rates, thereby providing evidence for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer. [Methods] Data on pancreatic cancer deaths among residents of Pudong New Area from 2002 to 2022 (ICD-10 codes C25.0 to C25.9) were collected through the Shanghai population death registration system. Software such as Excel 2010 were used to calculate crude mortality rates, standardized mortality rates, potential years of life lost (PYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR) and average years of life lost (AYLL). Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to assess trends in pancreatic cancer mortality rates. Age-period-cohort modeling was performed using R 4.4.1. [Results] The crude mortality rate for pancreatic cancer among residents of Pudong New Area from 2002 to 2022 was 15.42/100,000, showing an increasing trend (APC value of 2.90%, P<0.05); the standardized mortality rate was 6.26/ 100,000. The crude mortality rate was higher in males (17.09/100,000) than in females (13.75/100,000), with both genders exhibiting increasing trends,(APC = 3.05% and 2.75%, respectively, P < 0.05). Mortality rates declined significantly in the 45–<50 and 70–<75 age groups (APC = -2.62% and -1.11%, respectively, P < 0.05), while increasing trends were observed in the 80–<85 and ≥85 age groups (APC = 1.42% and 1.79%, respectively, P < 0.05). The potential years of life lost (PYLL) was 31,347 person-years, showing an upward trend (APC = 1.83%, P < 0.05), while the average years of life lost (AYLL) was 3.59 years per person, exhibiting a downward trend (APC = -2.45%, P < 0.05). Both PYLL and AYLL were higher in males than in females. Age-period-cohort modeling revealed that increasing age elevated the risk of pancreatic cancer mortality. The mortality risk decreased from 2002 to 2016 but subsequently increased. Additionally, the mortality risk rose with later birth cohorts. [Conclusion] The crude mortality rate for pancreatic cancer in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, showed an increasing trend from 2002 to 2022, with males having higher rates than females; age-specific mortality rates for pancreatic cancer increased with age; PYLL showed increasing trends, while AYLL showed a decreasing trend. Changes in the risk of death from pancreatic cancer are the result of the combined effects of age, period, and birth cohort. These findings highlight the need to strengthen prevention and control measures for pancreatic cancer, particularly among males and the elderly population, as well as to enhance the regulation of environmental risk factors. |
