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2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析

Trends of Incidence and Age Composition of Liver Cancer in Cancer Registration Areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019

投稿时间：2025-01-03 修订日期：2025-03-06

DOI：

中文关键词: 肝癌发病率趋势江苏

英文关键词:liver cancer incidence trend Jiangsu

基金项目:江苏省卫生计生委医学科研课题

作者	单位	邮编
姜碧佳^*	江苏省疾病预防控制中心	210009

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中文摘要:

摘要：[目的] 分析2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病趋势及年龄变化。[方法] 以2009—2019年江苏省16个肿瘤登记处连续完整、且各项质控指标均合格的肿瘤登记资料为数据来源，计算2009—2019年江苏省肝癌的发病率、标化发病率、平均发病年龄、标化平均发病年龄、标化年龄别发病构成等各项指标。应用Joinpoint软件，计算肝癌发病率、年龄别发病率的年均变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI），分析其变化趋势。采用线性回归模型分析平均发病年龄和标化平均发病年龄随发病年份变化的趋势。构建出生队列，计算1929—2019年出生的男性和女性肝癌发病率，并分析其发病趋势。计算2009年和2019年江苏省肝癌发病年龄构成。[结果] 2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病率调整人口年龄构成前后均呈逐年下降趋势（AAPC粗率=-2.06%，AAPC中标率=-4.92%，P均＜0.001），平均每年下降幅度均为男性（AAPC粗率=-2.25%，AAPC中标率=-4.71%，P均＜0.001）大于女性（AAPC粗率=-1.04%，P=0.27，AAPC中标率=-4.12%，P＜0.001），城市地区（AAPC粗率=-2.39%，AAPC中标率=-5.06%，P均＜0.001）大于农村地区（AAPC粗率=-1.61%，P=0.09，AAPC中标率=-4.42%，P均＜0.001）。2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区30~69岁年龄组出生队列人群随出生年份的增加肝癌发病率也逐渐降低（P＜0.05）。2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区肝癌平均发病年龄逐年升高。全省平均发病年龄由2009年的59.60岁升高到2019年的65.11岁，年平均增加0.55岁（P＜0.001）。与2009年相比，2019年江苏省肝癌的标化年龄别发病构成总体呈右移趋势。60岁以上人群肝癌标化年龄别发病构成比在全人群中发病占比均明显增加，AAPC为2.97%（95%CI：2.67%~3.27%）。[结论] 2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病呈逐年下降趋势，全省平均发病年龄升高，标化年龄别发病构成总体后移，60岁以上人群标化年龄别发病构成比明显增加。

英文摘要:

Abstract：[Objective] To analyze the incidence trend and age composition of liver cancer in tumor registration areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019. [Methods] Using continuous and complete tumor registration data from 16 tumor registries in Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 with qualified quality control indicators as sample data sources, the incidence rate, standardized incidence rate, average age of onset, standardized age of onset, and standardized age-specific incidence composition of liver cancer in Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 were calculated. Joinpoint software was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of liver cancer incidence and age-specific incidence, and to obtain their changing trends. A birth cohort was constructed to calculate the incidence of liver cancer in males and females born between 1929 and 2019, and its incidence trend was analyzed. The age composition of liver cancer incidence in Jiangsu Province in 2009 and 2019 was analyzed. [Results] From 2009 to 2019, the incidence of liver cancer in tumor registration areas of Jiangsu Province showed a decreasing trend year by year before and after adjusting for the age composition of the population (CR:AAPC =-2.06%, ASIRW:AAPC =-4.92%, P < 0.001), and the average annual decrease rate for males (CR:AAPC =-2.25%, ASIRW:AAPC =-4.71%, P < 0.001) was higher than that for females (CR:AAPC =-1.04%, P=0.27, ASIRW:AAPC =-4.12%, P < 0.001), and that for urban areas (CR:AAPC =-2.39%, ASIRW:AAPC =-5.06%, P < 0.001) was higher than that in rural areas (CR:AAPC =-1.61%, P=0.09, ASIRW:AAPC =-4.42%, P < 0.001). From 2009 to 2019, the incidence of liver cancer in the birth cohort aged 30 to 69 years in the tumor registration area of Jiangsu Province also decreased gradually with the increase of birth year (P < 0.05). The average age of onset of liver cancer in tumor registration areas of Jiangsu Province increased year by year from 2009 to 2019. The mean age of onset increased from 59.60 years in 2009 to 65.11 years in 2019, with an average annual increase of 0.55 years (P < 0.001). Compared with 2009, the standardized age-specific incidence of liver cancer in Jiangsu Province in 2019 showed a right-shifting trend. The proportion of age-specific incidence of liver cancer in people over 60 years of age increased significantly in the whole population, AAPC was 2.97% (95%CI: 2.67%-3.27%). [Conclusion] From 2009 to 2019, the incidence of liver cancer in tumor registration areas of Jiangsu Province showed a downward trend year by year, the average age of incidence increased, with the standardized age-specific incidence composition shifting overall, and the proportion of standardized age-specific incidence composition increased significantly in people over 60 years old.

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