| Objective To analyze the changing trends of the disease burden of liver cancer related to hepatitis B virus (HBV) globally and in China, so as to provide a theoretical basis for further improving the prevention and control strategies of liver cancer related to hepatitis B virus. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease database in 2021, indicators such as the age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of HBV related liver cancer globally and in China from 1992 to 2021 were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trends of epidemiological characteristics, and the age-period-cohort model was adopted to analyze the impacts of age, period, and cohort factors on the incidence and mortality risks of HBV related liver cancer globally and in China. Results From 1992 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of HBV related liver cancer globally generally showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The average annual percentage changes were -0.31%, -0.61%, and -0.87%, respectively, and all the downward trends were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). During the same period, the average annual percentage changes of the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of HBV related liver cancer in China were -0.45%, -0.90%, and -1.07%, respectively, and all the downward trends were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). The results of the age-period-cohort model analysis showed that from 1992 to 2021, the annual net drift rates of the incidence of HBV related liver cancer globally and in China were -0.71% (-0.84% to -0.57%) and -0.73% (-1.01% to -0.44%), respectively. The annual net drift rates of the mortality were -1.15% (-1.28% to -1.02%) and -1.42% (-1.69% to -1.14%), respectively. The incidence and mortality of HBV related liver cancer both showed an overall decline globally and in China. The results of the Wald c2 test showed that there were statistically significant differences in the changing trends of the age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of HBV related liver cancer globally and in China (all P < 0.05). Conclusion From 1992 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of HBV related liver cancer both globally and in China showed a downward trend. The disease burden of HBV related liver cancer in China was higher than the global level. The age-period-cohort model has revealed the historical changes in the incidence and mortality of HBV related liver cancer. The current and future situation of the disease burden of HBV related liver cancer is not optimistic. It is recommended to implement precise stratified interventions for populations of different ages, periods, and birth cohorts, and actively transform the prevention, treatment, and management strategies for HBV related liver cancer. |
