| 张莉梅,邵世亮.大连市区1991~2010年大肠癌流行趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2013,22(9):694-698. |
| 大连市区1991~2010年大肠癌流行趋势分析 |
| An Analysis on Epidemic Trend of Colorectal Cancer from 1991 to 2010 in Dalian City |
| 投稿时间：2013-04-07 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2013.09.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 大肠癌 发病率 年龄—时期—队列 相对危险度 大连 |
| 英文关键词:colorectal cancer incidence age-period-cohort relative risk Dalian |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析大连市区1991~2010年大肠癌流行趋势，为大肠癌防治措施的制定提供依据。［方法］ 根据大肠癌新发病例资料，分析其组织学类型，计算粗发病率、世界人口调整发病率（世标率）、截缩率、累积率、年度变化百分比（APC%），并进行年龄、时期、队列三因素相互调整后的相对危险度(RR)和95%可信区间估计，综合分析大肠癌年龄—时期—队列三因素变化趋势。［结果］ 男、女性大肠癌粗发病率分别为29.4/10万和23.3/10万，世标率分别为21.7/10万和15.6/10万，35～64岁截缩率分别为26.43/10万和22.48/10万，0～64岁累积率分别为0.99%和0.84%，0～74岁累积率分别为2.85%和1.91%。1991~2010年男女性粗发病率的APC均为+7.788% (P＜0.001)，世标率的APC分别为+4.603% (P＜0.001)和+4.498%(P＜0.001)。男女性在1996~2000年、2001~2005年和2006~2010年三个时期发病风险呈增加趋势（P＜0.001）。1946年以后出生队列发病风险呈降低趋势（P＜0.001）。35岁以上发病风险呈增加趋势（P＜0.001）。［结论］ 大连市区大肠癌发病水平处于同期中国肿瘤登记城市地区较高水平，开展积极有效的全人群大肠癌防治势在必行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract:［Purpose］ To investigate the epidemic trend of incidence of colorectal cancer in Dalian from 1991 to 2010，in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control for colorectal cancer.［Methods］ Histological type of colorectal cancer was analyzed based on the collected medical records.Crude rate，age-standardized rate(ASR World)，truncated rate，cumulative rate，annual percent change(APC) were calculated. Relative risk(RR) and 95％ confidence interval(95％CI) were estimated after the adjustment for age，period and cohort.Trend of age-period-cohort was comprehensively analyzed. ［Results］ The crude incidence was 29.4/105 in male and 23.3/105 in female. ASR World was 21.7/105 in male and 15.6/105 in female.Truncated rate(35～64 years old) was 26.43/105 in male and 22.48/105 in female.Cumulative rate(0～64 years old) was 0.99％ in male and 0.84％ in female，meanwhile，the cumulative rate(0～74 years old) was 2.85％ in male and 1.91％ in female. The APC of crude incidence and mortality from 1991 to 2010 was both +7.788％ in male and female(P all＜0.001). And the APC of ASR World from 1991 to 2010 was +4.603％ in male(P＜0.001) and +4.498％ in female(P＜0.001) .The risk of colorectal cancer increased in the period of 1996~2000， 2001~2005 and 2006~2010，both for male and female(P＜0.001）.For those whom was born after 1946，the risk of colorectal cancer decreased gradually(P＜0.001）， and those were over 35 years old，the risk of colorectal cancer increased constantly both for male and female(P＜0.001）.［Conclusion］ The trend of incidence of colorectal cancer in Dalian locates is in a relatively higher position as compared with the other Chinese cancer registration areas.It is imperative to conduct the positive and effective prevention for colorectal cancer. |
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