| 张 婷,胡文斌,陶 荣.江苏省昆山市2006~2014年卵巢癌发病率趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(9):702-706. |
| 江苏省昆山市2006~2014年卵巢癌发病率趋势分析 |
| Trend of Ovarian Cancer Incidence in Kunshan City，Jiangsu Province，2006~2014 |
| 投稿时间：2016-07-18 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2017.09.A009 |
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| 中文关键词: 卵巢癌 发病率 年度变化百分比 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:ovarian cancer incidence annual percent change Jiangsu |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 了解江苏省昆山市卵巢癌发病率趋势，预测2015~2020年发病率。［方法］ 2006~2014年卵巢癌病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记数据，用中国2000年第5次人口普查年龄结构计算年龄标化发病率（中标率）。使用年度变化百分比（annual change percentage，APC）评价发病率变化趋势；用时间趋势与自回归模型预测至2020年卵巢癌发病率。［结果］ 江苏省昆山市卵巢癌粗发病率从2006年的3.63/10万上升到2014年10.19/10万（APC=8.6%，95%CI：3.6%~13.6%）；中标率从2006年的2.70/10万上升到2014年的7.19/10万（APC=7.1%，95%CI：1.7%~12.5%）；年龄别发病率在30~60岁快速上升，60~64岁达到高峰。时间趋势与自回归模型预测结果显示2015~2020年卵巢癌预粗发病率分别为10.22/10万、10.76/10万、11.30/10万、11.84/10万、12.39/10万和12.93/10万。［结论］ 江苏省昆山市卵巢癌发病率明显上升，未来也将继续上升。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To investigate the trend of ovarian cancer incidence and to predict the incidence up to 2020 in Kunshan，Jiangsu province.［Methods］ Ovarian cancer cases were derived from cancer registry. The Chinese population in 2000 was used for age-standardized incidence rate(ASR)，annual percentage changes(APC) and 95% confidence interval(CI) were used to examine the trend and the stepwise autoregressive method of time series model was used to predict the incidence rate up to 2020. ［Results］ Crude incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased from 3.63/105 to 10.19/105(APC=8.6%，95%CI：3.6%~13.6%)，the ASR(per 100 000) increased from 2.70/105 to 7.19/105(APC=7.1%，95%CI：1.7%~12.5%). The age-specific incidence increased rapidly age 30~60 years and peaked at age 60~64 years. The stepwise autoregressive method of time series model demonstrated that the ovarian cancer showed upward trend in the year 2015 to 2020，with 10.22/105，10.76/105，11.30/105，11.84/105，12.39/105，and 12.93/105，respectively. ［Conclusion］ The ovarian cancer incidence is increasing by time during 2006 to 2014 in Kunshan city，and a continue increasing is predicted. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer. |
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