| 中文关键词: 胃癌 发病 预测 中国 |
| 英文关键词:stomach cancer incidence prediction China |
| 基金项目:科技部国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1313100）；中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程（2016?鄄12M?鄄2?鄄004）；科技部基础工作专项（2014FY121100） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 3672 |
| 全文下载次数: 929 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析我国胃癌发病变化趋势，预测2020年全国胃癌发病率和发病数。［方法］提取2000～2014年全国肿瘤登记中心有连续数据的22个肿瘤登记处的胃癌发病数据，利用Joinpoint软件分析胃癌发病情况的趋势。对男性和女性各年龄组的发病率拟合对数线性模型并预测各年龄组2020年的发病率，结合联合国的人口估计值预测2020年全国胃癌发病情况。［结果］ 2000～2014年肿瘤登记地区胃癌发病率趋势平稳，年均变化百分比（AAPC）为0.2%；标化率下降明显，AAPC为-2.9%；发病数上升明显，AAPC为2.8%。2020年预计全国胃癌发病率为24.30/10万，新发病例数约为34.6万（男性23.7万，女性10.9万）。［结论］ 我国胃癌发病率已趋于平稳，但总发病数还将随人口老龄化的加剧而增加。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trend of stomach cancer incidence in China，and to predict the incidence rate and the number of new cases of stomach cancer in 2020. ［Methods］ Data on stomach cancer incidence during 2000～2014 sent to National Central Cancer Registry from 22 cancer registries were extracted. Trend of incidence was analyzed using Joinpoint software. Log-linear model was fitted for each age group of men and women to predict the incidence rate in 2020. Overall incidence in 2020 was predicted using the population projections by United Nations. ［Results］ Trend of incidence rate of stomach cancer in cancer registry areas in China during 2000～2014 was stable，with average annual percentage change(AAPC) being 0.2%，while age-standardized incidence rate decreased significantly(AAPC=-2.9%) and the number of new cases increased significantly(AAPC=2.8%). It is predicted that the incidence rate of stomach cancer in China will be 24.30/105 in 2020 and number of new cases will be 346 thousands(237 thousands for men，109 thousands for women). ［Conclusion］ Though the trend of incidence rate of stomach cancer in China is stable，the number of new cases will keep rising due to the ageing of population. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
