| 朱晓云,张亚宁,林 菲.上海市金山区2012~2017年恶性肿瘤所致早死概率及其变化趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2019,28(6):422-427. |
| 上海市金山区2012~2017年恶性肿瘤所致早死概率及其变化趋势分析 |
| Trend of Probability of Premature Mortality Caused by Cancer in Shanghai Jinshan District，2012~2017 |
| 投稿时间：2018-11-17 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2019.06.A005 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 早死概率 趋势 上海 |
| 英文关键词:cancer probability of premature mortality trend Shanghai |
| 基金项目:上海市金山区科学技术委员会医药卫生类科技创新资金项目（2016-3-14） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2012~2017年上海市金山区恶性肿瘤所致早死概率及其变化趋势，为制定肿瘤防控策略提供参考依据。［方法］ 建立2012~2017年金山区恶性肿瘤死亡数据库，计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年龄别死亡率、早死概率和率的年度变化百分比等指标。［结果］ 2012~2017年金山区恶性肿瘤所致早死概率为6.48%，位居四类主要慢性病所致早死概率的首位。按早死概率排序，2012~2017年金山区男性前5位肿瘤死因分别为肺癌、肝癌、食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌，早死概率在0.79%~1.96%之间，其中肺癌、肝癌和食管癌早死概率随时间增长呈下降趋势（APC=－4.49%、－8.28%、－16.57%，P<0.05）。同期，金山区女性前5位肿瘤分别是肺癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、胰腺癌和肝癌，早死概率在0.35%~0.88%之间，其中乳腺癌早死概率随时间增长呈下降趋势（APC=－11.12%，P<0.05）。［结论］ 男性肺癌、肝癌和食管癌，女性肺癌、结直肠癌和乳腺癌分别是导致金山区男性和女性早死概率最高的三类肿瘤，宜针对主要肿瘤致病危险因素和流行特征采取综合性措施进行防控。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trend of probability of premature mortality caused by cancer in Shanghai Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017. ［Methods］ The data of malignant tumors from death cause registry system in Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017 were collected. Crude death rate，age-standardized death rate by world standard population(ASR world)，age-specific death rate，probability of premature mortality and annual percent change(APC) were calculated，respectively. ［Results］ The probability of premature mortality caused by cancer was 6.48% and ranked the first in four main non-communicable diseases(NCDs) in Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017. The top five cancers in males sorted by probability of premature mortality were lung cancer，liver cancer，esophageal cancer，stomach cancer and colorectal cancer and the probabilities of premature mortality of top five cancers in males were in the range of 0.79% to 1.96%. The probability of premature mortality caused by lung cancer，liver cancer and esophageal cancer in male decreased from 2012 to 2017(APC=-4.49%，-8.28%，-16.57%，P<0.05). During the same period the top five cancers in females sorted by probability of premature mortality were lung cancer，colorectal cancer，breast cancer，pancreatic cancer and liver cancer and the probabilities of premature mortality of top five cancers in females were in the range of 0.35% to 0.88%. The probability of premature mortality caused by breast cancer in females decreased from 2012 to 2017(APC=-11.12%，P<0.05). ［Conclusion］ In Jinshan district lung cancer，liver cancer and esophageal cancer are the top three cancers which lead to the highest probabilities of premature mortality in males and lung cancer，colorectal cancer and breast cancer are the top three cancers which lead to the highest probabilities of premature mortality in females. |
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