| 姜 帆,付振涛,鹿子龙,等.2018年山东省老年人群恶性肿瘤发病与死亡情况及2013—2018年趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(1):8-14. |
| 2018年山东省老年人群恶性肿瘤发病与死亡情况及2013—2018年趋势分析 |
| Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Elderly Population in 2018 and Its Trend from 2013 to 2018 in Shandong Province |
| 投稿时间：2022-05-17 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.01.A002 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 老年人 山东 |
| 英文关键词:malignancy incidence mortality elderly Shandong |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0901301）；山东省泰山学者工程专项（ts201511105）；山东省重点研发计划（2016GSF201231）；山东省医药卫生科技发展计划（202012051127） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 根据山东省肿瘤监测资料，估计全省2013—2018年老年人群恶性肿瘤发病及死亡水平，分析老年人群恶性肿瘤发病和死亡变化趋势。［方法］ 根据肿瘤监测数据的质控标准，纳入质量合格的监测数据并进行分析。分城乡、性别计算老年人群恶性肿瘤发病和死亡水平，结合全省人口数据，估计全省老年人群恶性肿瘤发病和死亡情况。发病率和死亡率分别通过2000年我国标准人口结构和Segi’s世界标准人口结构进行标化，简称中标率和世标率。采用Joinpoint模型估计老年人群恶性肿瘤中标发病率和中标死亡率年度变化百分比（APC）。［结果］ 2018年山东省老年人群恶性肿瘤发病率为1 078.81/10万，中标率为1 033.85/10万。老年男性发病率高于女性，农村高于城市。老年恶性肿瘤发病顺位前5位依次为肺癌、胃癌、结直肠癌、食管癌和肝癌。老年人群恶性肿瘤死亡率为764.81/10万，中标率为699.70/10万。老年男性死亡率高于女性，农村高于城市。老年恶性肿瘤死亡顺位前5位依次为肺癌、胃癌、食管癌、肝癌和结直肠癌。2013—2018年，山东省老年人群恶性肿瘤中标发病率呈下降趋势，平均每年下降4.3%，差异无统计学意义（APC=-4.3%，95%CI：-9.0%~0.7%，P=0.073）。老年男性、老年女性、城市地区和农村地区老年人的中标发病率变化趋势与全省老年人群一致。山东省老年人群恶性肿瘤中标死亡率呈下降趋势，平均每年下降5.8%，差异有统计学意义（APC= -5.8%，95%CI：-9.9%~-1.4%，P=0.022）。老年男性、老年女性、城市地区和农村地区老年人群的中标死亡率变化趋势与全省老年人群一致。［结论］ 山东省老年人群恶性肿瘤发病和死亡呈下降趋势，但其疾病负担仍然较重，尤其是肺癌和消化道肿瘤，仍是我省进一步防控的重点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To estimate the cancer incidence and mortality in elderly population (aged above 60 years) in 2018， and their changing trend from 2013 to 2018 in Shandong Province. ［Methods］ The quality of cancer registration data 2013—2018，including completeness， validity and reliability was assessed according to the criteria on cancer registration in International Agency for Research on Cancer and International Association of Cancer Registries. The incidence and mortality in elderly population stratified by gender and areas (urban/rural) were analyzed. The age-standardized rates were calculated according to China’s standard population in 2000 and Segi’s world standard population. The annual percentage change (APC) of age-standardized incidence and mortality in the elderly population were estimated by Joinpoint model. ［Results］ In 2018， the crude cancer incidence in the elderly population in Shandong was 1 078.81/105， and the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC) was 1 033.85/105. The incidence of elderly men was higher than that of women， and rural areas was higher than urban areas. The top 5 cancers in the elderly were lung cancer， gastric cancer， colorectal cancer， esophageal cancer and liver cancer. The mortality in the elderly was 764.81/105， and the ASMRC was 699.70/105. The crude mortality of elderly men was higher than that of women， and rural areas was higher than urban areas. The top 5 deaths of cancer in the elderly were lung cancer， gastric cancer， esophageal cancer， liver cancer and colorectal cancer. During 2013—2018， the cancer incidence in the elderly population showed a downward trend， with APC of -4.3%（95%CI：-9.0%~0.7%， P=0.073). The trend of cancer incidence in men and women， urban and rural areas were consistent with that of the overall rate. The cancer mortality among the elderly showed a downward trend with APC of -5.8%（95%CI： -9.9%~-1.4%， P=0.022). The change trend of cancer mortality in men and women， urban and rural areas were consistent with that of overall rate in province. ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of cancers among the elderly are declining since 2013 in Shandong province， however， the disease burden remains high. Lung and gastrointestinal cancers are the main cancers which need further attention for prevention and control. |
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