| 蒋龙艳,蓝 桃,成 曼,等.1973—2019年广西肝癌死亡率时空趋势研究[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(1):15-19. |
| 1973—2019年广西肝癌死亡率时空趋势研究 |
| The Spatio-temporal Trends of Mortality Rate of Liver Cancer in Guangxi from 1973 to 2019 |
| 投稿时间：2022-07-09 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.01.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 肝癌 死亡率 时空趋势 广西 |
| 英文关键词:liver cancer mortality rate spatio-temporal trend Guangxi |
| 基金项目:美国中华医学基金会（CMB 19-307） |
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| 摘要点击次数: 555 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 探讨1973—2019年广西各县区肝癌死亡率的时空变化趋势。［方法］ 收集1973—1975年全国第一次死因调查中的广西各县区肝癌死亡资料及2018—2019年广西各县区居民的肝癌死因监测资料。通过空间自相关和扫描统计量对肝癌死亡率进行时空趋势分析。［结果］ 与1973—1975年相比，2018—2019年广西肝癌死亡率上升了68.61%。近50年来，稳定的高死亡率县区在桂西南地区，稳定的低死亡率县区在桂北、桂东和桂南沿海地区，死亡率降低的县区在桂西北地区，死亡率升高的县区在桂西南和桂东南地区。空间自相关分析发现，肝癌死亡率存在空间正相关关系，呈聚集性分布（Moran’s I >0，P<0.01），“高-高”聚集区在桂西南地区，但高死亡聚集区的空间范围随时间推移呈缩小趋势。空间扫描统计量发现，肝癌高死亡率主要聚集在桂西南地区，但近年来桂东南地区新现散在的小范围高死亡聚集区。［结论］ 近50年来，广西肝癌死亡率有所上升，且存在明显的空间聚集性，既有稳定的高死亡率县区和稳定的低死亡率县区，也有死亡率升高的县区和死亡率降低的县区。建议因地制宜，加强广西肝癌的区域性综合防治。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To explore the spatio-temporal trends of primary liver cancer mortality in Guangxi at the county level during 1973—2019. ［Methods］ The date of liver cancer death in Guangxi counties and districts in the first national cause-of-death investigations from 1973 to 1975， as well as the liver cancer death cause monitoring data of residents in Guangxi counties and districts from 2018 to 2019， were collected. The spatio-temporal trends of liver cancer mortality were analyzed by spatial auto-correlation and scan statistics.［Results］ Compared with 1973—1975， the mortality rate of liver cancer in Guangxi increased by 68.61% during 2018—2019. In the past 50 years， the stable counties with high mortality rates located in southwest of Guangxi. The stable counties with low mortality rates located in the coastal areas of south， east and north of Guangxi. The counties with reduced mortality rates located in northwest of Guangxi. The counties with increased mortality rates located in the southwest and southeast of Guangxi. Spatial auto-correlation analysis found that there was a positive spatial correlation in mortality of liver cancer in each period， showing a clustered distribution（Moran’s I>0， P<0.01）. The “high-high” cluster was in southwest of Guangxi， but the spatial extent of high mortality cluster tended to shrink over time. Spatial scan statistic showed that high mortality rate of liver cancer in each period was mainly concentrated in southwest of Guangxi， but in recent years， there has been scattered small-scale high mortality clusters in southeast of Guangxi. ［Conclusion］ In the past 50 years， the mortality rate of liver cancer in Guangxi Province has increased. The risk of liver cancer death in Guangxi has significant spatial cluster. The province has stable high mortality counties and stable low mortality counties， as well as counties with increasing mortality and decreasing mortality. It is suggested to strengthen the regional comprehensive prevention and treatment of liver cancer in Guangxi according to local conditions. |
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