| 王 军,陈永胜,丁璐璐,等.1972—2016年江苏省启东市女性乳腺癌生存率趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(3):178-183. |
| 1972—2016年江苏省启东市女性乳腺癌生存率趋势分析 |
| Analysis of Survival Rate Trend for Female Breast Cancer in Qidong of Jiangsu， 1972—2016 |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-09 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.03.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 乳腺癌 生存率 趋势 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:breast cancer survival rate trends Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:2022年南通市科技计划项目（JCZ2022050） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析1972—2016年启东市女性乳腺癌发病病例生存情况。［方法］ 女性乳腺癌资料来源于启东癌症登记报告系统，随访时间截至2021年12月31日。采用SURV 3.01软件计算观察生存率（observed survival rate，OSR）和相对生存率（relative survival rate，RSR），利用Hakulinen氏似然比检验法进行统计检验。Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件分析生存率年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）。采用SAS 9.2软件中的ARIMA模型进行乳腺癌生存率趋势预测。［结果］ 1972—2016年启东市女性乳腺癌 1、5、10年OSR分别为86.90%、65.96%及55.61%，1、5、10年RSR分别为88.01%、70.54%及64.40%；将1972—2016年分9个时期，5年RSR从1972—1976年的56.89%升至2012—2016年的83.46%，RSR上升趋势差异有统计学意义（χ2=337.47，P <0.001）。1972—2016年5年OSR和5年RSR的APC分别为1.21%和1.17%，均呈明显上升趋势（P均<0.05）。其中，1996—2016年5年OSR的 APC为1.91%，1995—2016年5年RSR的APC为1.85%（P均<0.05）。35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁和75岁及以上年龄组5年RSR分别为72.57%、73.11%、70.37%、67.79%和60.16%，各年龄组之间RSR差异有统计学意义（χ2=184.52，P<0.001）。时间趋势分析显示，1972—2016年，35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁和75岁及以上年龄组5年RSR的APC分别为0.95%、0.88%、1.79%、2.04%和1.16%，除75岁及以上年龄组上升趋势差异无统计学意义（P=0.092），其余年龄组差异均有统计学意义（P均<0.05）。乳腺癌生存率趋势预测结果显示，到2026年，5年OSR将升至88.38%，5年RSR将升至94.10%。［结论］ 45年来启东市女性乳腺癌总体生存率上升趋势明显，但仍有一定的上升空间，应当继续加强重视乳腺癌的早诊早治措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of survival rate in female breast cancer patients in Qidong from 1972 to 2016. ［Methods］ The data of female breast cancer were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry， and follow-up was up to December 31， 2021. The overall survival rate(OSR) and relative survival rate(RSR) were calculated by Hakulinen method with SURV 3.01 software， and Hakulinen’s likelihood ratio test was used for difference comparison. Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC) in female breast cancer survival rate. ARIMA model in SAS 9.2 software was used to predict the trend of female breast cancer survival rate. ［Results］ From 1972 to 2016， the 1-， 5- and 10-year OSR of female breast cancer were 86.90%， 65.96% and 55.61%， and the 1-， 5- and 10-year RSR were 88.01%， 70.54% and 64.40%， respectively. The 5-year RSR increased from 56.89% during 1972—1976 to 83.46% during 2012—2016， and the uptrends of RSR during 1972 to 2016 were statistical significant(χ2=337.47， P<0.001). The APC of 5-year OSR and 5-year RSR were 1.21% and 1.17% from 1972 to 2016 (both P<0.05). The APC of 5-year OSR from 1996 to 2016 was 1.91%， and the APC of 5-year RSR from 1995 to 2016 was 1.85%(both P<0.05）. The 5-year RSR among age groups 35~44， 45~54， 55~64， 65~74 and 75+ years old were 72.57%， 73.11%， 70.37%， 67.79% and 60.16%， respectively(χ2=184.52， P<0.001). The APC of 5-year RSR among age group 35~44， 45~54， 55~64， 65~74 and 75+ years old were 0.95%， 0.88%， 1.79%， 2.04% and 1.16%， respectively; except for age group 75+ years old (P=0.092)， there were significant differences in APC of 5-year RSR among all age groups(all P<0.05). Survival rate prediction of female breast cancer showed that by 2026， 5-OSR and 5-RSR would increase to 88.38% and 94.10%， respectively. ［Conclusion］ Over the past 45 years， the overall survival rate of female breast cancer in Qidong has been improved to a certain extent， but there is room for further improvement. It should be continued to strengthen early diagnosis and early treatment of female breast cancer. |
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