| 周海茸,洪 忻,周金意,等.2007—2020年江苏省南京市主要恶性肿瘤过早死亡对期望寿命的影响[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(7):517-524. |
| 2007—2020年江苏省南京市主要恶性肿瘤过早死亡对期望寿命的影响 |
| Probability of Premature Mortality Caused by Malignant Tumors and Its Impact on Life Expectancy in Nanjing from 2007 to 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2022-12-02 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.07.A005 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 早死概率 期望寿命 期望寿命分解 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumors probability of premature death life expectancy decomposition of life expectancy Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:南京市卫生科技发展专项资金（YKK21175） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析南京市居民2007—2020年恶性肿瘤过早死亡变化趋势，评估恶性肿瘤早死概率变化对期望寿命增量的影响。［方法］ 通过南京市户籍人口死亡信息登记管理系统，收集2007—2020年南京市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡病例，基于简略寿命表法，计算30~69岁居民恶性肿瘤早死概率。采用Joinpoint 回归分析恶性肿瘤早死概率变化趋势，计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间。采用Arriaga分解法估计恶性肿瘤早死概率变化对期望寿命变化的贡献情况，并进行年龄别、死因别分解，量化各癌种对期望寿命的贡献。［结果］ 南京市恶性肿瘤早死概率由2007年的9.78%下降到2020年的5.27%，呈持续下降趋势（AAPC=-4.35%，95%CI：-6.21%~-2.45%）；14年间男性早死概率均高于女性，但下降速度（13.50%降至6.85%，AAPC=-5.39%）快于女性（6.13%降至3.68%，AAPC=-3.89%）。恶性肿瘤早死概率的降低对期望寿命增长贡献达1.18岁，占增寿总量的16.82%。男性和女性早死概率的降低均对期望寿命增长起到“正向贡献”，分别增加1.61岁（22.24%）、0.69岁（10.20%），女性低于男性。早死概率变化对期望寿命“正向贡献”最大的前3位恶性肿瘤分别为胃癌、肺癌和肝癌，使得期望寿命累计增加0.83岁；对期望寿命 “负向贡献”的恶性肿瘤为宫颈癌和卵巢癌，两者使期望寿命累计减少0.03岁。30~49岁年龄段早死概率降低对期望寿命贡献处于较低水平，累计贡献率为8.09%，从50~54岁组开始，期望寿命增量贡献随年龄的增长而上升，在55~59岁组达到高峰（16.24%）。［结论］ 2007—2020年南京市居民恶性肿瘤早死概率呈持续下降趋势，对南京市居民期望寿命增长起到积极作用，应重点关注肺癌、上消化道恶性肿瘤、白血病、卵巢癌和宫颈癌的过早死亡对期望寿命的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trend of premature death of malignant tumors in Nanjing from 2007 to 2020 and evaluate the influence of premature mortality probability caused by malignant tumors on life expectancy. ［Methods］ Based on the mortality data collected by Nanjing Mortality Registration System from 2007 to 2020， the trend of the probability of premature death on cancer was analyzed. The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes(AAPC)， and their 95% confidence interval(CI). Arriaga’s decomposition method was used to calculate and to decompose the changes on life expectancy by age and causes of premature death from 2007 to 2020. ［Results］ From 2007 to 2018， the total probability of premature death of malignant tumors were declined consistently from 9.78% to 5.27%(AAPC=-4.35%， 95%CI：-6.21%~-2.45%)， higher in male(from 13.50% to 6.85%) than that in female(from 6.13% to 3.68%). The decline of premature death of malignant tumors had a positive contribution to life expectancy， which contributed 1.18 years(16.82%) to the life expectancy growth， 1.61 years(22.24%) in male and 0.69 years(10.20%) in female. Among which， premature death of stomach cancer， lung cancer and liver cancer had greater positive contributions to life expectancy(0.83 years)， while cervical cancer and ovarian cancer had negative contributions to life expectancy(-0.03 years). The contribution to life expectancy remained low in 30~49 years old， and increased from 50 years old and peaked at age group of 55~59 years old（16.24%）. ［Conclusion］ The premature death probability of malignant tumors in Nanjing declined consistently from 2007 to 2020， which played a positive role in the growth of life expectancy. More intervention and health management of premature death on lung cancer， the upper digestive tract malignant tumors， leukemia， female reproductive system tumors should be conducted to improve life expectancy further. |
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