| 沈成凤,寻鲁宁,王 冲,等.2017年天津市胰腺癌发病与死亡流行特征及2010—2017年变化趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(9):653-660. |
| 2017年天津市胰腺癌发病与死亡流行特征及2010—2017年变化趋势分析 |
| Epidemiological Characteristics of Incidence and Mortality of Pancreatic Cancer in Tianjin in 2017 and Trends from 2010 to 2017 |
| 投稿时间：2023-03-29 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.09.A002 |
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| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 天津 |
| 英文关键词:pancreatic cancer incidence mortality trend Tianjin |
| 基金项目:天津市卫生高层次人才选拔培养项目（津人才［2018］19号）；天津市医学重点学科（专科）建设项目（TJYXZDXK-051A） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2017年天津市胰腺癌发病与死亡流行病学特征，以及2010—2017年变化趋势。［方法］ 收集整理2010—2017年天津市胰腺癌发病与死亡数据，并计算胰腺癌发病（死亡）率、中标发病（死亡）率、世标发病（死亡）率及0~74岁累积发病（死亡）率，分析其流行病学特征；应用Joinpoint回归模型计算2010—2017年间天津市胰腺癌发病（死亡）率和中标发病（死亡）率的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC），并分析其变化趋势。［结果］ 2017年天津市胰腺癌发病率为11.29/10万，中标率为5.61/10万，世标率为6.31/10万，累积率（0~74岁）为0.65%，占全部恶性肿瘤发病的3.11%，位居全癌种发病顺位的第8位。胰腺癌死亡率为9.18/10万，中标率为4.40/10万，世标率为5.03/10万，累积率（0~74岁）为0.51%，占全部恶性肿瘤死亡的4.62%，位居全癌种死因顺位的第4位。胰腺癌发病率和死亡率均为男性高于女性，城市地区高于农村。胰腺癌年龄别发病率和死亡率在44岁之前均处于较低水平，45岁以后随着年龄的增加快速上升，且均在75~79岁年龄组到达最高峰，之后略有下降。2010—2017年间天津市胰腺癌发病和死亡均呈现上升趋势，发病率和中标发病率APC分别为4.71%（95%CI：3.08%~6.37%）和2.67%（95%CI：1.08%~4.28%），死亡率和中标死亡率APC分别为4.80%（95%CI：3.46%~6.16%）和2.47%（95%CI：1.22%~3.73%），变化趋势差异有统计学意义（P均<0.05）。男性发病和死亡年均增幅高于女性，农村地区高于城市。［结论］ 2010—2017年天津市胰腺癌发病和死亡仍处于较高水平，且呈现逐年上升趋势，需针对男性、中老年人群做好重点防控措施，有效降低胰腺癌的发病率和死亡率。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in Tianjin in 2017 and the trends from 2010 to 2017. ［Methods］ The data of pancreatic cancer in Tianjin from 2010 to 2017 were collected and sorted. The crude rates of incidence and mortality， age-standardized incidence/mortality rates(ASIR/ASMR)， cumulative incidence/mortality rates (0~74 years old) were calculated to analyze the epidemiological characteristics. Joinpoint regression model were used to analyze the trends of the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer from 2010 to 2017 and the annual percentage changes (APC) of ASIRC/ASMRC were also calculated. ［Results］ In 2017， the crude incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in Tianjin was 11.29/105， the ASIRC was 5.61/105 and ASIRW was 6.31/105， respectively. The cumulative incidence rate (0~74 years old) was 0.65%， accounting for 3.11% of the total incidence of malignant tumors and ranking the eighth. The crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer was 9.18/105， the ASMRC and ASMRW were 4.40/105 and 5.03/105， respectively. The cumulative mortality rate(0~74 years old) was 0.51%， accounting for 4.62% of the total mortality of malignant tumors and ranking the fourth. The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in male were higher than those in female， and were higher in urban areas than those in rural areas. The incidence and mortaity of pancreatic cancer were at a low level in the age group of 0~44 years old， and increased rapidly after the age of 45 years old， and reached the highest in the age group of 75~79 years old， then showed a decreasing trend. From 2010 to 2017， the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in Tianjin showed the increasing trend， the crude incidence rate and ASIRC of APC were 4.71%(95%CI：3.08%~6.37%) and 2.67%(95%CI：1.08%~4.28%)， the crude mortality rate and ASMRC of APC were 4.80%(95%CI：3.46%~6.16%) and 2.47%(95%CI：1.22%~3.73%)， the difference of change trend was statistically significant(all P<0.05). The annual percentage changes(APC) of incidence and mortality in male was higher than those in female， and was higher in rural areas than those in urban areas. ［Conclusion］ From 2010 to 2017， the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in Tianjin remained a high level among all cancers and showed an rising trend year by year. It is necessary to take effective prevention and control measures to reduce the incidence and death of pancreatic cancer for male and elderly people. |
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