| 朱 健,王 军,陈永胜,等.江苏省启东市50年肝癌发病流行趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(11):827-835. |
| 江苏省启东市50年肝癌发病流行趋势分析 |
| Fifty-Year Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence in Qidong， Jiangsu |
| 投稿时间：2023-09-07 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.11.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 肝癌 发病率 趋势 流行病学 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:liver cancer incidence trend epidemiology Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2021YFC2500400）；南通市“十四五”科教强卫工程（通卫科技〔2021〕15号）；南通市卫生健康委科研课题（MS2023121） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析江苏省启东市1972—2021年全人群肝癌发病流行趋势。［方法］ 基于启东市癌症登记病例数据库，提取1972—2021年肝癌发病登记资料，结合相应人口资料，计算粗率（crude rate，CR）、中国人口标化率（age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population，ASRC）、世界人口标化率（age-standardized rate by world standard population，ASRW）、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积发病率、累积发病风险等。用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件进行Joinpoint 回归分析，计算肝癌发病率年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）与平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。［结果］ 启东市1972—2021年50年期间共计发生肝癌36 127例，占同期全部恶性肿瘤发病例数的24.49%；肝癌CR为64.41/10万，ASRC为35.76/10万，ASRW为46.74/10万，35~64岁截缩率为107.56/10万，0~74岁累积发病率为4.86%，肝癌累积发病风险为4.75%。ASRW男女性别比为3.21∶1。1972—2021年肝癌各年龄组发病率随年龄增加而不断升高。发病年龄由1972年的48.38岁上升至2021年的66.39岁，50年期间平均发病年龄为54.28岁。0~24岁、25~34岁、35~44岁、45~54岁及55~64岁各年龄组发病率的AAPC值依次为-5.22%（P<0.001）、-4.06%（P=0.002）、 -2.21%（P=0.015）、-1.43%（P=0.002）及 -0.81%（P= 0.013），下降趋势均有统计学意义。时间趋势结果显示1972—2021年男女合计、男性及女性CR的总体AAPC值分别为0.88%（P<0.001）、0.65%（P<0.001）及1.58%（P<0.001），上升趋势均有统计学意义；ASRC的总体AAPC值分别为 -1.81%（P<0.001）、-2.00%（P<0.001）及-1.48%（P<0.001），下降趋势均有统计学意义。［结论］ 启东肝癌高发现场50年的防治工作已对总体标化发病率、65岁以下人群的肝癌发病率产生了影响，尤其以2008年后的CR的下降最为显著，启东肝癌防治效果较好。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological trends of liver cancer incidence in Qidong of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021. ［Methods］ Data on liver cancer incidence from 1972 to 2021 were extracted from the Qidong Cancer Registry Database. Crude incidence rates(CR)， age-standardized rates by Chinese standard population ASRC)， age-standardized rates by world standard population (ASRW)， truncated rates for 35~64 years old， cumulative rates for 0~74 years old， and cumulative risk were calculated. The annual percentage change (APC) in liver cancer incidence was calculated by Joinpoint regression 4.9.1.0 software. ［Results］ Over the 50-year period from 1972 to 2021， there were a total of 36 127 cases of liver cancer reported in Qidong， accounting for 24.49% of all malignant tumor cases during the same period. CR of liver cancer was 64.41/105， ASRC was 35.76/105， ASRW was 46.74/105， truncated rate for 35~64 years old was 107.56/105， cumulative rate for 0~74 years old was 4.86%， and cumulative risk was 4.75%. The male to female ratio in ASRW was 3.21∶1. Liver cancer incidence rate increased with age. The onset age was increased from 48.38 years in 1972 to 66.39 years in 2021， with an average onset age of 54.28 years over the 50-year period. The AAPCs in liver cancer incidence of age groups 0~24， 25~34， 35~44， 45~54 and 55~64 years were -5.22% (P<0.001)， -4.06% (P＝0.002)， -2.21% (P＝0.015)， -1.43% (P＝0.002)， and -0.81% (P＝0.013)， respectively. Temporal trends indicated significant upward trends in CR among both gender， males and females with AAPC values of 0.88% (P <0.001)， 0.65%(P<0.001)， and 1.58% (P<0.001)， respectively. However， significant downward trends were observed in ASRC with overall AAPC values of -1.81% (P<0.001)， -2.00% (P<0.001)， and -1.48%(P<0.001)， respectively. ［Conclusion］ The efforts in prevention and control of liver cancer in Qidong over the past 50 years have had an impact on the overall standardized incidence rate and the incidence rate in population below 65 years of age， especially with a significant decline in CR since 2008. The liver cancer prevention and control effect in Qidong is promising. |
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