| 陈 蕾,钱耐思,方 博,等.2000—2020年上海市结直肠癌死亡率趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2023,32(12):899-906. |
| 2000—2020年上海市结直肠癌死亡率趋势分析 |
| Trends of Colorectal Cancer Mortality in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2023-08-31 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2023.12.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 结直肠癌 死亡率 年龄-时期-队列模型 趋势 上海 |
| 英文关键词:colorectal cancer mortality age-period-cohort model trends Shanghai |
| 基金项目:上海市卫生健康委员会卫生行业临床研究专项（20204Y0205） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 了解2000—2020年上海市结直肠癌死亡率变化趋势。［方法］ 采用Joinpoint软件中的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）与平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change，AAPC)计算结直肠癌死亡率区间与总体变化趋势，使用年龄-时期-队列模型分析2000—2020年上海市不同年龄、时期、出生队列人群的结直肠癌死亡率风险。［结果］ 2000—2020年上海市报告结直肠癌死亡共计77 016例，死亡率26.05/10万，标化死亡率14.04/10万。男性结直肠癌死亡42 634例，标化死亡率15.86/10万；女性死亡34 382例，标化死亡率12.30/10万。上海人群结直肠癌死亡风险在2000—2011年间具有显著上升的趋势（P=0.019）。2000—2015年间，男性结直肠癌标化死亡率明显上升（P<0.001）。结直肠癌死亡率随着年龄的增长而升高；1915—1935年的出生队列人群，结直肠癌死亡风险大致上升；1935—1980年间的出生队列人群，结直肠癌死亡风险有波动下降的趋势；1980年以后的出生队列人群，结直肠癌死亡风险又继续上升。［结论］ 上海市结直肠癌死亡率处于较高水平。仍需要加强对结直肠癌的公共卫生学干预，包括早期筛查诊断、开展对目标人群的健康教育等措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of colorectal cancer mortality in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020. ［Methods］ Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using Joinpoint software to assess the variation intervals and overall trends in colorectal cancer mortality rates. An age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the risk of colorectal cancer mortality in different age groups， periods and birth cohorts of the Shanghai population from 2000 to 2020. ［Results］ A total of 77 016 cases of colorectal cancer death were reported in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020， with mortality rate of 26.05/105 and age-standardized mortality rate (ASR) of 14.04/105. Among them， 42 634 were males with ASR of 15.86/105， and 34 382 were females with ASR of 12.30/105. The risk of colorectal cancer mortality in Shanghai showed a significant rising between 2000 and 2011(P=0.019). There was a significant increase in ASR of colorectal cancer among males from 2000 to 2015 (P<0.001). Colorectal cancer mortality rates increased with age. Those born in the period 1915—1935 exhibited a general increase in colorectal cancer mortality risk. For individuals born between 1935 and 1980， there was a fluctuating decrease in colorectal cancer mortality risk. However， for those born after 1980， colorectal cancer mortality risk continued to rise. ［Conclusion］ Colorectal cancer mortality rates in Shanghai remain at relatively high levels， therefore， continued public health interventions for colorectal cancer are necessary. |
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