| 陆玲玲,孙 燕,严永锋,等.全球及中国膀胱癌流行特征分析与趋势预测——基于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(7):499-506. |
| 全球及中国膀胱癌流行特征分析与趋势预测——基于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库 |
| Epidemic Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Bladder Cancer Worldwide and in China： Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022 Database |
| 投稿时间：2024-12-11 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.07.A001 |
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| 中文关键词: 膀胱癌 发病率 死亡率 人类发展指数 全球 中国 |
| 英文关键词:bladder cancer incidence mortality human development index global China |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2022YFC２４０９９０１）；中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程项目（２０２１-Ｉ２Ｍ-１-０１１） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2022年全球不同地区与中国膀胱癌的流行病学特征和未来发展趋势。［方法］ 膀胱癌发病数和死亡数的估算数据来自于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库，按不同地理区域、性别、年龄别、人类发展指数（human development index，HDI）等级进行分组，分析发病率、死亡率、年龄标化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR）和年龄标化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate，ASMR）等指标，采用简单线性回归和Spearman相关系数检验研究HDI与ASIR、ASMR的相关性，并对2050年膀胱癌发病与死亡情况进行预测。［结果］ 2022年全球膀胱癌估计新发病例数为614 298例，死亡病例数为220 596例，ASIR和ASMR分别为5.6/10万和1.8/10万。欧洲地区ASIR和ASMR最高，分别为12.0/10万、3.0/10万。全球男性ASIR和ASMR均高于女性，40岁后人群膀胱癌发病率和死亡率快速上升。各地区HDI水平和膀胱癌的ASIR、ASMR呈正相关（r值分别为0.670、0.434，P均＜0.001）。预测到2050年，全球膀胱癌新发病例数达122.9万例，死亡病例增加到49.4万例；中国膀胱癌发病及死亡数将分别为17.6万例和10.3万例。［结论］ 膀胱癌在全球不同国家、地区、性别、年龄组以及 HDI 水平间存在显著差异。伴随着人口老龄化形势加剧和工业化进程加快，我国膀胱癌发病和死亡风险进一步增大，膀胱癌的防治工作需进一步加强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence， mortality and trends of bladder cancer worldwide and in China in 2022. ［Methods］ The incidence and mortality data of bladder cancer were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database by geographical regions， sex， age， and human deve-lopment index (HDI). The crude incidence/mortality rate， age-standardized incidence/mortality rate (ASIR/ASMR) of bladder cancer were calculated. Simple linear regression and Spearman’s correlation test were used to analyze the correlation between the HDI and ASIR/ASMR， the trends of incidence and projection in 2050 were estimated. ［Results］ In 2022， the estimated numbers of new cases and deaths of bladder cancer worldwide were 614 298 and 220 596， respectively， with ASIR and ASMR of 5.6/105 and 1.8/105. ASIR and ASMR in Europe were the highest， with 12.0/105 and 3.0/105， respectively. The ASIR and ASMR for males were higher than those for females， and increased rapidly after 40 years old of age. A positive correlation was observed between HDI levels and ASIR and ASMR of bladder cancer (r=0.670 and 0.434， respectively， both P<0.001). It was projected that the global incidence and mortality of bladder cancer would reach 1.229 million and 0.494 million by 2050， and 0.176 million and 0.103 million for China， respectively. ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of bladder cancer varies significantly among different region， sex， age and HDI levels worldwide. With the population aging and the industrialization accelerating， the risk of bladder cancer in China has been increasing. The prevention and control efforts for bladder cancer should be further strengthened. |
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