| 韩天鸿,刘 佳,陈 海,等.2009—2023年江苏省无锡市居民胃癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(7):530-538. |
| 2009—2023年江苏省无锡市居民胃癌死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析 |
| Trends of Gastric Cancer Mortality and Age-Period-Cohort Among Residents in Wuxi City of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2023 |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-22 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.07.A005 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 胃癌 死亡率 寿命损失年 年龄-时期-队列模型 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:gastric cancer mortality rate years of life lost age-period-cohort model Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:无锡市医学重点学科（LCX2021006）；无锡市“双百”中青年医疗卫生拔尖人才项目（BJ2023096，HB2023095）；无锡市卫健委重大项目（Z202221）；南京医科大学无锡医学中心项目（WMCDC202301，WMCC202312） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 61 |
| 全文下载次数: 25 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析江苏省无锡市2009—2023年居民胃癌死亡变化趋势以及30岁及以上居民年龄、时期、出生队列对胃癌死亡风险的影响。 ［方法］ 收集2009—2023年无锡市胃癌死亡资料，计算胃癌的粗死亡率、标化死亡率、寿命损失年（years of life lost，YLL）、YLL率。使用Joinpoint回归计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）分析死亡变化趋势。拟合年龄-时期-队列模型分析30岁及以上人群胃癌死亡风险和死亡负担的年龄、时期及队列效应。 ［结果］ 2009—2023年无锡市胃癌共死亡32 348例，粗死亡率为44.24/10万，标化死亡率为25.10/10万，YLL共计681 618.33人年。胃癌粗死亡率、标化死亡率、YLL率整体均呈下降趋势，AAPC分别为-1.77%（95%CI：-2.10%~-1.43%）、-4.59%（95%CI：-4.97%~-4.20%）和-2.14%（95%CI：-2.56%~-1.74%）。2009—2023年男性胃癌粗死亡率、标化死亡率、YLL均高于女性，但是女性各指标下降速度均快于男性。年龄效应显示，胃癌死亡风险总体随年龄的增长而增加，YLL率随年龄呈先上升后下降的趋势。时期效应显示，随着时间的推移，胃癌死亡风险和死亡负担逐渐下降。队列效应显示，越晚出生的队列胃癌死亡风险和死亡负担越低。［结论］ 2009—2023年无锡市30岁及以上居民胃癌死亡风险和死亡负担均呈下降趋势。胃癌死亡风险和死亡负担受性别差异和年龄效应影响较大，未来应重点加强中老年男性人群的胃癌筛查和早期干预。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of mortality and disease burden of gastric cancer among residents aged 30 and above from 2009 to 2023 in Wuxi City of Jiangsu Province and to estimate the age-period-cohort effect. ［Methods］ The gastric cancer mortality data from 2009 to 2023 were collected from Wuxi Death Registration System， and the crude mortality rate， age-standardized mortality rate， years of life lost (YLL) and YLL rate were calculated. The average annual percen-tage change (AAPC) was calculated with Joinpoint regression to analyze the trends of mortality and YLL rate of gastric cancer. The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effect of age， period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality. ［Results］ From 2009 to 2023， there were 32 348 gastric cancer deaths in Wuxi， the crude mortality rate was 44.24/105， and the age-standard mortality rate was 25.10/105， with a total YLL of 681 618.33 person-years. The crude mortality rate， age-standardized mortality rate and YLL rate showed decreasing trends， with AAPC of -1.77% (95%CI： -2.10%~-1.43%)， -4.59% (95%CI： -4.97%~-4.20%) and -2.14% (95%CI： -2.56%~-1.74%)， respectively. From 2009 to 2023， crude mortality rate， age-tandardized mortality rate， YLL in men were higher than those in women， and the decline rates of all indicators in women were faster than those in men. The age effect showed that the overall risk of gastric cancer death increased with age； the period effect showed a gradual decrease in the mortality risk and death burden of gastric cancer over time； the cohort effect showed that the later born cohort had a lower risk of death and death burden. ［Conclusion］ From 2009 to 2023， the disease burden of gastric cancer mortality in Wuxi showed a decreasing trend， with age and sex being the primary influencing factors. In the future， emphasis should be placed on gastric cancer screening and early intervention in middle-aged and elderly men. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |