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江苏省启东市48年乳腺癌生存率长期趋势分析

Long-term Trend of Breast Cancer Survival Rate in Qidong, 1972-2019

投稿时间：2024-02-19 修订日期：2024-04-09

DOI：

中文关键词: 乳腺癌癌症登记生存率趋势启东

英文关键词:Breast cancer Cancer registration Survival Trends Qidong

基金项目:

作者	单位	邮编
王俊磊	启东市人民医院，启东肝癌防治研究所，南通大学附属启东医院	226200
朱健^*	启东市人民医院，启东肝癌防治研究所，南通大学附属启东医院	226200

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中文摘要:

[目的] 分析启东市1972—2019年全人群乳腺癌发病病例进行生存率，为防治提供决策依据。[方法] 计算观察生存率（OSR）、相对生存率（RSR）和年龄标化相对生存率（ARS），以及平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）。ARIMA模型进行乳腺癌生存率趋势预测。[结果] 5-RSR从1972—1977年的57.30%升至2014—2019年的89.01%，八个时期的RSR上升趋势有统计学意义（ χ2= 534.03，P< 0.001）。5-ARS从1972—1977年的48.12%升至2014—2019年的85.64%。 5-ARS的AAPC为1.85%（t =10.113，P<0.001)，上升趋势有统计学意义。其中1972-2019年男性乳腺癌5年RSR为85.22%，女性5年RSR为74.51%。女性5-RSR从1972—1977年的56.44%升至2014—2019年的88.93%，5-ARS从1972—1977年的46.14%升至2014—2019年的85.23%。女性乳腺癌5-RSR、5-ARS的AAPC值分别为1.29%（t=13.087，P<0.001）和1.90%（t=10.369，P<0.001），上升趋势均有统计学意义。25-34岁、35-44岁、45-54岁、55-64岁、65-74岁及75岁以上各年龄组5-RSR分别为66.91%、74.69%、76.97%、75.52%、73.44%及66.40%，AAPC值分别为1.02%（t =3.816，P＝0.009）、1.03%（t =4.936，P＝0.003）、1.23%（t =5.826，P＝0.001）、1.86%（t =5.997，P＝0.001）、2.13%（t =10.245，P<0.001）和1.44%（t =6.405，P＝0.001），上升趋势均有统计学意义。经ARIMA模型进行生存率趋势预测，2023年的5-RSR、5-ARS分别升至94.73%和93.40%。[结论]启东市全人群乳腺癌登记病例总体生存率有了较大的提高，但尚有一定的上升空间，应当继续重视乳腺癌的防治研究。

英文摘要:

[Purpose] The survival rate of breast cancer cases in the whole population from 1972 to 2019 in Qidong was analyzed to provide a basis for prognosis assessment and prevention. [Methods] Observed survival rate (OSR), relative survival rate(RSR), age-adjusted relative survival (ARS) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) were calculated. ARIMA model was used to predict the trend of breast cancer survival rate. [Results] The 5-year RSR increased from 57.30% in 1972-1977 to 89.01% in 2014-2019, and the uptrend of RSR in the eight periods was statistically significant ( χ2= 534.03, P <0.001). The 5-year ARS increased from 48.12% in 1972-1977 to 85.64% in 2014-2019. The AAPC of 5-ARS was 1.85% (t =10.113, P<0.001), the uptrend were statistically significant . For males, the 5-RSR in 1972-2019 was 85.22%, and for females was 74.51%,. For females, the 5-year RSR increased from 56.44% in 1972-1977 to 88.93% in 2014-2019, the 5-year ARS increased from 46.14% in 1972-1977 to 85.23% in 2014-2019, the AAPC of 5-RSR was 1.29% (t =13.087, P<0.001), and the AAPC of 5-ARS was 1.90% (t =10.369, P<0.001), the uptrend were statistically significant . The 5-year RSR for the age groups of 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and over 75 years old were 66.91%, 74.69%, 76.97%, 75.52%, 73.44% and 66.40%, respectively. The AAPC of 5-RSR aged 25-34 years was 1.02% (t=3.816, P=0.009), aged 35-44 years was 1.03% (t = 4.936, P=0.003), aged 45-54 years was 1.23% (t =5.826, P=0.001), aged 55-64 years was 1.86% (t =5.997, P=0.001), aged 65-74 years was 2.13% (t =10.245, P<0.001), and aged over 75 years was 1.44% (t = 6.405, P=0.001), respectively. The uptrend was statistically significant. After ARIMA modeling for survival trend prediction, 5-RSR and 5-ARS for breast cancer ascended to 94.73% and 93.40%, respectively, by 2023. [Conclusion] The overall survival rate of registered breast cancer cases in Qidong City has been greatly improved, but there is still a proportion for improvement, more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer.

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