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2018-2023年四川省遂宁市恶性肿瘤流行特征及变化趋势分析

Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics and Trends of Cancer in Suining City of Sichuan Province from 2018 to 2023

投稿时间：2026-04-24 修订日期：2026-06-30

DOI：

中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤发病率死亡率趋势分析遂宁市

英文关键词:Cancer Incidence Mortality Trend Suining

基金项目:国科健康医疗大数据遂宁研究中心科研课题（编号GKD2025001）

作者	单位	邮编
张松	遂宁市中心医院	629099
梁玉君	遂宁市疾病预防控制中心	629099
杜恒	遂宁市中心医院	629099
杨继红	遂宁市疾病预防控制中心	629099
卢婷	遂宁市中心医院	629099
危婷	遂宁市中心医院	629099
朱小凤^*	遂宁市中心医院	629099

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中文摘要:

［目的］分析2018-2023年四川省遂宁市恶性肿瘤的发病、死亡情况及变化趋势，为制定区域肿瘤防控策略提供科学依据。［方法］收集2018-2023年遂宁市肿瘤登记数据，计算粗发病率/死亡率、中国人口标化率、世界人口标化率等指标。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），分析时间变化趋势。［结果］ 2018-2023年，遂宁市恶性肿瘤粗发病率为293.39/10万，中标发病率为155.84/10万，世标发病率为152.98/10万；粗死亡率为194.95/10万，中标死亡率为94.08/10万，世标死亡率为93.53/10万。全人群中标死亡率（AAPC=-2.12%，P=0.003）、男性中标发病率（AAPC=-2.95%，P=0.025）和中标死亡率（AAPC=-1.57%，P=0.012）、女性中标死亡率（AAPC=-3.24%，P=0.039）均呈下降趋势。粗发病率和粗死亡率均在55岁后快速上升，80~84岁达峰值。发病前5顺位分别为肺癌、胃癌、肝癌、食管癌、乳腺癌，死亡前5顺位分别为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌。男性前列腺癌（AAPC=13.70%，P<0.001）、膀胱癌（AAPC=3.88%，P<0.001）和女性肺癌（AAPC=5.78%，P=0.010）粗发病率均呈上升趋势；男性结直肠癌（AAPC=6.46%，P=0.001）、胰腺癌（AAPC=7.43%，P=0.035）、前列腺癌（AAPC=23.44%，P<0.001）和女性宫颈癌（AAPC=7.94%，P<0.001）、胰腺癌（AAPC=16.10%，P<0.001）均呈上升趋势。［结论］ 2018-2023年遂宁市恶性肿瘤中标死亡率呈下降趋势，防控工作取得一定成效，但消化道肿瘤负担依然沉重，男性前列腺癌、膀胱癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌，女性肺癌、宫颈癌、胰腺癌疾病负担呈上升趋势。建议针对重点癌种和高危人群加强筛查与早诊早治工作。

英文摘要:

［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence, mortality and changing trends of cancer in Suining City, Sichuan Province from 2018 to 2023, and to provide scientific evidence for the formulation of regional cancer prevention and control strategies. ［Methods］Cancer registration data of Suining from 2018 to 2023 were collected, and crude incidence and mortality rates, age-standardized rates by Chinese population, and age-standardized rates by world population were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and analyze the temporal trends. ［Results］ From 2018 to 2023, the crude incidence rate of cancer in Suining City was 293.39/10?, with age-standardized incidence rates of 155.84/10? by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) and 152.98/10? by world standard population (ASIRW). The crude mortality rate was 194.95/10?, with age-standardized mortality rates of 94.08/10? (ASMRC) and 93.53/10? (ASMRW). Decreasing trends were observed in the overall ASMRC (AAPC=-2.12%, P=0.003), male ASIRC (AAPC=-2.95%, P=0.025) and male ASMRC (AAPC=-1.57%, P=0.012), and female ASMRC (AAPC=-3.24%, P=0.039). Both crude incidence and mortality rates increased rapidly after age 55, peaking at age 80-84. The top 5 incidence sites were lung, stomach, liver, esophagus, and breast cancer; the top 5 mortality sites were lung, liver, stomach, esophagus, and colorectum cancer. Increasing trends in crude incidence rates were observed for male prostate cancer (AAPC=13.70%, P<0.001), male bladder cancer (AAPC=3.88%, P<0.001), and female lung cancer (AAPC=5.78%, P=0.010). Increasing trends in crude mortality rates were observed for male colorectum cancer (AAPC=6.46%, P=0.001), male pancreatic cancer (AAPC=7.43%, P=0.035), male prostate cancer (AAPC=23.44%, P<0.001), female cervical cancer (AAPC=7.94%, P<0.001), and female pancreatic cancer (AAPC=16.10%, P<0.001).［Conclusion］ From 2018 to 2023, the age-standardized mortality rate of cancer in Suining City showed a decreasing trend, indicating initial progress in cancer prevention and control. However, the burden of gastrointestinal tumors remained heavy, while the disease burden of prostate cancer, bladder cancer, colorectum cancer, and pancreatic cancer in males, as well as lung cancer, cervical cancer, and pancreatic cancer in females, showed increasing trends. It is recommended to strengthen screening and early diagnosis and treatment efforts for key cancer types and high-risk populations.

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